Daily Market Report – Mar 03, 2022

For today’s storage report our final projection is -141 Bcf (S/D -142, Flow -140). The last few weeks, the EIA report came more in line with our flow model, and therefore today we once again take an average of our two models as our final number.

The current Bloomberg survey is -141 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at -138 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is -135 [today’s report]

Week 2 is -135

Week 3 is -62

There current end of Winter 2021/22 (Apr 8^th) is 1390. [Last week was 1370]

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3550. [Last week was 3600]

Today’s weather run: The GFS Ensemble was overall neutral, while the Euro Ensemble gained 5 GWHDDs.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.59 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.5 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 87.8 Bcf today,  +4.4 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -12 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 31.3 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.7 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today.

Flow model results:

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