The EIA reported a -139 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Feb 25th, which came in line with estimates range. With the current report, the outright storage levels now sit at 1643 Bcf (-216 vs LY, -255 vs. 5Yr)
For the reported week, the weather made a shift to cooler across the entire country except the Eastern seaboard. This led to tighter daily balances as production freeze-offs were seen in West TX/Midcon and we had strong rescomm demand (+1.7 Bcf/d WoW). The drop in LNG deliveries due to the Freeport power outage and strong wind helped keep the storage draws lower that we would have otherwise seen.
This past week’s report continues to point to the tight market conditions. We estimate this report was 2.5 Bcf/d tight vs LY (wx adjusted). With more normal wind levels this storage report would have been much tighter relative to past years.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.24 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.12 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 91.3 Bcf today, +0.29 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -4.15 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 25.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 34.9 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.5 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -136 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Mar-04-2022.pdf