Daily Market Report – Mar 08, 2022

Today’s 00z run showed warmer temps across all regions past this week. The GFS Ensemble lost a total of 13.4 GWHDDs vs yesterday 12z, with much of that change focused in the 6-10 day period. The Euro Ensemble saw an even more aggressive change warmer, but more spread out over the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods. The Midwest saw the biggest shift in this latest run. The two major models are now very much aligned until March 17^th.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  93.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.71 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.45 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production was lower across many regions, but mainly out of the SC.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 94.8 Bcf today,  +6.14 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +9.7 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 36 Bcf.
Power burns are lower with warmer temps, and wind picking up once again. The few days we have seen wind average 70 GWh.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.3 Bcf today. Total deliveries were above 13 Bcf/d yesterday with Sabine regaining some volumes. Today’s drop comes from Corpus Christie. Corpus Christi dropped today due to ESD testing on the Sinton Compressor Station. This should only be a 1-day event.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -130 Bcf today.

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