Daily Market Report – Mar 18, 2022

Yesterday, the EIA reported a -79 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Mar 11^th. The report came in slightly higher than market estimates. Storage levels were reported to be 1440 Bcf.

For the reported week, total consumption dropped with warming weather across the Eastern half of the country and rising wind. The net result was L48 GWHDD dropping by -3.0F relative to the previous week, resulting in a 6.9 Bcf/d drop in consumption. Also notable was the change in wind generation, which jumped back up above normal to average 56 GWh.

This past week’s report continues to point to the tight market conditions. We estimate this report was ~4 Bcf/d tight vs LY (wx adjusted). This embeds the high wind experienced last week. With wind at normal levels this report would have been 0.5 Bcf/d tighter.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  94.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.05 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.73 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 73.8 Bcf today,  +1.18 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -11.92 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 24.7 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 21.2 Bcf. Today’s 00z run continued to warm the East leading to lower consumption to close the month out.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.7 Bcf today. Corpus Christie is back up to normal operational levels today, while Cheniere’s other plant (Sabine Pass) is down by 0.7 Bcf/d.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.6 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -55 Bcf today.

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