Daily Market Report – Mar 22, 2022

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.01 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.51 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production from TX continues to recover, and more specifically out of the Haynesville basin. We have been discussing the rumored outage (fire) at the Aethon processing plant that caused the drop in production on March 1^st from the Haynesville basin. Since the weekend we have seen volumes from that area recover as volumes started shifting to other pipes.

According to Criterion Research, “Gulf South pipeline nominations nearly returned to normal late last week, reaching 2.8 Bcf/d as the pipe redirected gas supply onto other meters as the Hall Summit station remains offline…. The Hall Summit meter that grabs gas from an Aethon subsidiary remained at zero, but the Aethon United Desoto station started flowing more (as did others)”.

Source: Criterion

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 76.3 Bcf today,  +2.73 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.53 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 22.9 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.7 Bcf today.

For week ending Mar 18^th, our S/D storage model is pointing to a 61 Bcf draw while our flow model is slightly higher at a -66 Bcf draw. Below is the regional break down of the flow based model + the week storage activity at the 4 facilities that report on a weekly basis.

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