Yesterday, the EIA reported a -51 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Mar 18th, which came much lower than market estimates. Storage levels were reported to be 1389 Bcf. This report was tight but not as tight as the last few reports. We estimate this report was ~3.2 Bcf/d tight vs LY (wx adjusted). This embeds the high wind experienced last week. Wind generation rose to 63 GWh on average during the week from 57 GWh the week prior. We calculate ~52 GWh to be the expected norm for this time of the year. With wind at normal levels, this report would have been closer to 5.0 Bcf/d tighter vs LY (wx adjusted).
Despite the bearish report, the entire summer strip moved higher shortly after the report was released. The nature of the tight reports is starting to raise fear of a low end of summer storage balance. We are currently forecasting a 3.35-3.4 Tcf for end of Oct.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.22 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.15 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 81 Bcf today, -1.73 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.57 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 24.7 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13.4 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.9 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +22 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Mar-25-2022.pdf