Daily Market Report – Mar 31, 2022

For today’s storage report our final projection is +26 Bcf (S/D +26, Flow +32).

The current Bloomberg survey is +26 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +26 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +28 [today’s report]

Week 2 is +33 (this seem’s very off)

Week 3 is +42

There current end of Winter 2021/22 (Apr 8^th) is 1400. [Last week was 1434]

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3550. [Last week was 3550]

Flow model results:

Today’s weather run was somewhat neutral. Below is the 24Hr change, and the current forecast vs 10Yr normal.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.59 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.09 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 80.7 Bcf today,  -2.47 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -8.12 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 23.1 Bcf. The L48 saw record wind on Tuesday that is helping lower natgas consumption for power significantly. Total wind average over 80 GWh on Tuesday, with Cali above 4GWh and Texas above 23 GWh.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13.2 Bcf today. Sabine deliveries are now back above 5 Bcf/d today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today.

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