Today’s 00z run compared to Friday’s 12z run was mixed. The GFS Ensemble showed some cooling over the next week, especially on Mar 5th. The Euro showed the same trend in movement, but the drop in GWHDDs outweighed the increase. The GFS Ensemble gained an over 13.5 GWHDDs, and the Euro Ensemble lost -3.0 GWGDDs. Below is the day by day change.
Most factors of the natgas S/D have returned to normal levels after the extreme cold in Feb. LNG is now back to normal levels as well with all plants expected to receive 10.75 Bcf of feedgas today. Sabine is still operating below 4 Bcf/d, but it appears it has been ramping up over the past 5 days.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 90.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -2.42 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.09 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 89.5 Bcf today, +6.72 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.22 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.64 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 33.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.7 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.7 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Weekend-Report-Mar-01-2021.pdf