Daily Market Report – March 03, 2021

The EIA delivered a natgas report out of left field. The pull of 98 Bcf, roughly 40 Bcf lighter than the market, was no where near reality. This was the 2nd wild report from the EIA this week. This crude report on Wednesday’s stated a massive 21+ MB build, while the market was looking for a small crude draw, around 2-3 MB.

I did chat with someone at the EIA yesterday. They confirmed they received a strong dataset, and that they stand by their number. So that leaves us figuring out how the market missed by over 6 Bcf/d.

We will spend some more time in the weekend report discussing the validity of this report.

Today’s weather shifted to a warmer pattern east of the Rockies, with the Lower 48 net gaining 11.7 degrees. Today’s weather pattern marked a shift warmer for the entire forecast except for the tail end of the 11-15 day period.

Here is how the 15 day forecast looks:

LNG feedgas levels jump back over 11 Bcf/d today with Cameron expected to take 2.08 Bcf/d of deliveries. It now appears everything in the balances is back to the pre-Feb levels.

Today’s Fundamentals:

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  91.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.62 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.75 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 90.6 Bcf today,  +0.63 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.06 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 264 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 36.5 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.3 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.3 Bcf today.

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