Weather turned warmer overnight with all the changes in the 6-10 reversing. Both the Euro Ensemble and GFS Ensemble show a similar weather pattern over the next 15 days, where we hover slightly warmer than the 10Y normal, and than slightly cooler past day 5. The current forecast for March sits right between the 10Y and 30Y normal, and similar to 2009. Last March was considerably warmer with almost 100 fewer GWHDDs.
Source: CWG
Also to note today is a big drop in Northeast gas production. We do not know if this will hold, or get revised higher in later cycles. If this does hold, the current projected level for today’s has day of 31.5 Bcf/d would take production well below the ~34 Bcf/d observed in mid-December.
Today’s Fundamental:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 90.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -2.29 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.05 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 75.9 Bcf today, -7.06 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -13.05 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 24.84 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 25.3 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 9.9 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 1.4 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Mar-09-2021.pdf