Daily Market Report – March 10, 2021

The big miss from last week storage report will make tomorrow’s report ultra interesting, and hard to nail. I assume we have a super wide range. If the 98 Bcf was accurate, then analyst would have to substantially lower their S/D model estimates for tomorrow report. On the flip side, if this past week was inaccurate then we could see some of the correction (or maybe even an official revision) show up in tomorrow’s report.

For tomorrow’s storage report, our S/D model points to a 46 Bcf draw and our scrape model points to a 59 Bcf draw. We are leaning towards the scrape model this week, and see a higher draw risk to that number if there are some adjustments made by operator.

For the South Central we see a net injection for last week. Salt +15 and Non-salt 0.

Some transparent Salt facilities for reference: Pine Prairie showed a net draw of -4.5 Bcf for week ending Feb 26^th and is showing a net injection of +3.2 Bcf for week ending Mar 5^th. Golden Triangle showed a net draw of -3.9 Bcf for week ending Feb 26^th and is showing a net draw -0.2 Bcf for week ending Mar 5^th.

Today’s Fundamental:

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  90.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.68 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.24 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 73.6 Bcf today,  -0.91 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -13.27 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 24.24 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 23.4 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.4 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 3.9 Bcf today.

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