Daily Market Report – March 11, 2021

For today’s report our S/D model points to a 49 Bcf draw and our scrape model points to a 59 Bcf draw. We are leaning towards the scrape model this week, and see a higher draw risk to that number if there are some adjustments made by operator (after last week’s very loose number). For the South Central we see a net injection for last week. Salt +15 and Non-salt 0.

The market expectations are all over the place with a range of -104 to -39.

The current Bloomberg survey is -78 and Bloomberg whisper is -56 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of Mar 10^th.

Week Ending Mar 5 is -64

Week Ending Mar 12 is -76

Week Ending Mar 19 is -24

There current end of Winter (Apr 8^th) is 1660 [was 1580 last week]
There current end of Summer (Nov 12^th) is 3520. [was 3500 last week]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  90.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.12 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.02 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 72.8 Bcf today,  +0.1 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -11.54 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 24.34 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 21.7 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 3.9 Bcf today.

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