Daily Market Report – March 18, 2021

For today’s report our S/D model points to a -10 Bcf draw. As noted in the weekend report, the largest factor in the low draw this week comes from weather continuously warming up as we approach spring and the large amount of industrial and oil refinery consumption still being offline. The daily gas consumption decreased by an average of 6.9 Bcf/d to 82.1 Bcf/d week on week. 

The market expectations are all over the place with a range of -29 to -4.

The current Bloomberg survey is -18 and Bloomberg whisper is -17 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of Mar 18^th.

Week Ending Mar 12 is -66 (no volume, so this looks to be a very outdated number)

Week Ending Mar 19 is -24

Week Ending Mar 26 is +8

There current end of Winter (Apr 8^th) is 1750 [was 1660 last week]
There current end of Summer (Nov 12^th) is 3520. [was 3520 last week]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  91.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.71 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.29 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 82.8 Bcf today,  -1.81 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.23 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.34 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 27.7 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.8 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today.

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