Daily Market Report – March 25, 2021

For today’s report our S/D model points to a -27 Bcf draw. The largest factor in the low draw in past week comes from weather continuously warming up as we approach spring and the large amount of industrial and oil refinery consumption still being offline. For week ending March 19, we see a lot of the industrial load that went offline during the Feb cold come back. Yesterday the oil inventory report helped confirm that with the Padd3 refinery utilization jumping by 8.2% to 78.9%.

Oil Refinery Utilization by PADD

The current Bloomberg survey is -21 and Bloomberg whisper is -22 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of Mar 24^th.

Week Ending Mar 19 is -24

Week Ending Mar 26 is +8

Week Ending Apr 2 is +26

There current end of Winter (Apr 8^th) is 1800 [was 1750 last week]
There current end of Summer (Nov 12^th) is 3570. [was 3520 last week]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  90.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.74 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.66 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 72.6 Bcf today,  +1.58 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.35 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 25.24 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 20.8 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.6 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.4 Bcf today.

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