Yesterday the EIA reported a -36 Bcf storage draw for week ending March 19th. This came in higher than our estimate of -27 Bcf, and the median analyst expectation of -22. The stronger number looks to confirm the increase in industrial natural gas consumption to more “normal” levels after many facilities and refineries did not immediately open after the February cold episode.
The pipeline scrape data for the SC and Midwest confirm industrial gas consumption recovering to more appropriate levels for both last weeks storage number and this upcoming report.
The EIA oil inventory report from Wednesday also confirm the same change with Padd3 oil refinery utilization increasing by 8.2% to 78.9%.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 90.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.74 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.67 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 72.6 Bcf today, +1.59 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.36 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 25.24 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 20.8 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.6 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.4 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Mar-26-2021.pdf