Daily Market Report – May 12, 2022

For today’s storage report our final projection is +82 Bcf (S/D +82 and Flow +80). There is the possibility of a higher injection in the SC again this week with the market missing the real amount of production in the Texas region, particularly associated gas from West Texas. For last few storage reports our SC storage projection from our flow model has been light relative to reported value.

This is the results of our flow estimate.

The current Bloomberg survey is +81 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +79 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +81 [today’s report]

Week 2 is +97

Week 3 is +100

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3440. [Last week was 3450]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1672. [no OI]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.82 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.88 Bcf/d to the 7D average. We saw a day-on-day drop out of the Midcon region in today’s nomination data. We believe this drop is related to various pipeline maintenance events.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 67.6 Bcf today,  -1.71 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.5 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.2 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 11.2 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.6 Bcf today. The big drop came from Corpus Christie. There is no reported maintenance at the moment, but the severity of the drop suggest its related to plant or pipeline maintenance.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.1 Bcf today.

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