Daily Market Report – May 13, 2022

The EIA reported a +76 Bcf injection for the week ending May 6th, which came in slightly lower than market estimates. This storage report takes the total level to 1643 Bcf, which is 376 Bcf less than last year at this time and 312 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,955 Bcf.

Overall, we estimate this +76 Bcf injection is flat vs Q2 2021 summer (wx adjusted), which breaks the loose report streak we have seen this summer so far.

A few things that stand out for this week is the continued pressure on production with various pipeline maintenance projects, and slow recovery out of the Bakken. Additionally, the drop in wind generation looks to have increased power burns. Wind dropped by 9.7 GWh on average between week ending April 29^th and May 6^th.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.62 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.74 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 67.6 Bcf today,  -1.83 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.12 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 9.7 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.8 Bcf today. Adding to the lower volumes going int to Cameron, we are now see lower volumes to Corpus Christie.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.1 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +90 Bcf today.

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