Overnight weather runs once again shifted warmer this morning. The GFS Ensemble added at total of 2 CDDs, while the Euro Ensemble added 4 CDDs. The peak heat is expected to hit this coming weekend. As the heat comes this week, wind is much lower which should add to the gas burns.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 94.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.93 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.35 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production was much lower from across multiple regions – the Northeast/South Central, and the Rockies.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 69.1 Bcf today, +0.44 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.37 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 10.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.4 Bcf today. The increase comes with Cameron starting to increase deliveries. This could be a sign that the train 1 maintenance is complete.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.5 Bcf today.
For week ending May 13th, our S/D storage model is pointing to a +91 Bcf injection while our flow model is much lower with a +82 Bcf. Below is the regional break down of the flow based model + the week storage activity at the 4 facilities that report on a weekly basis.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-May-17-2022.pdf