Daily Market Report – May 19, 2022

For today’s storage report our final projection is +87 Bcf (S/D +91 and Flow +83). There is the possibility of a higher injection in the SC. We suspect the market is missing the real amount of production in the Texas region, particularly associated gas from West Texas. Other than last week’s report, in the few prior few storage reports our SC storage projection from our flow model has been light relative to reported value.

This is the results of our flow estimate.

The current Bloomberg survey is +90 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +87 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +NA [today’s report]

Week 2 is +97

Week 3 is +91

Week 4 is +100

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3480. [Last week was 3440]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1672. [no OI]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  94.8 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.04 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.34 Bcf/d to the 7D average. SC production continues to struggle today after strong levels in late-April.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 69.9 Bcf today,  -0.56 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.78 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 32.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 9.7 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be back above 13 Bcf today with Cameron volumes starting to return to normal.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today.

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