After some incredible heat in the southern regions, we see today’s 00z warmer in the 6-10 day period vs Friday’s 12z run. Below is a chart showing the change from last week for the two major models.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.37 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.75 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production is starting to pick up in the SC and Midcon after a brief slowdown that looks to be related to various pipeline maintenance. Current production levels are 1.5-2.0 Bcf/d higher than levels a week ago.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 71.2 Bcf today, +0.57 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.07 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 12.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13.4 Bcf today. Today’s nomination data suggest most plants are operating at high utilization levels. Sabine typically operations at lower utilization when temps are very hot in the region. We a return to more normal temps, we should see operations pick up at the facility.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +92 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-May-23-2022.pdf