The EIA reported a +80 Bcf injection for the week ending May 20th, which came in much lower than market estimates. The general range of expectation was +86 Bcf to +89 Bcf. This storage report takes the total level to 1812 Bcf, which is 387 Bcf less than last year at this time and 327 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,955 Bcf.
After a very loose April, the past reports have been tight to Q2 2021. This last week’s number was significantly tighter wx adjusted. We calculate last week’s report to be -1.7 Bcf/d tight vs Q2 2021 as seen in the chart below.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.6 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.6 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 67.2 Bcf today, -2 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.96 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.7 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.8 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13.3 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.7 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +78 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-May-27-2022.pdf