Daily Market Report – Nov 05, 2021

The EIA reported a +63 Bcf injection for week ending Oct 29, which was lower than the consensus of ~66-67. The injections continue to exceed both LY and the 5Yr average injection levels. For the reported week, the storage injections benefited from strong production levels even as season heating demand kicked in. Wind generation was also quite strong for the 3^rd week in a row.

The futures were strong ahead of the EIA number, but started to sell-off shortly after despite the slightly bullish storage number (relative to expectations). For the next report the balances look to be much tighter with increasing heating demand. The result looks to be a single digit injection.

The current weather forecast shows warmer than normal  temps for next week, followed by near-normal. The cold could come mid-month has not really shown up in the GFS Ensemble or Euro Ensemble yet.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.13 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.59 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 87.1 Bcf today,  -5.63 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.1 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 28.4 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.5 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.1 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +9 Bcf today.

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