The Euro Ensemble warmed significantly over the weekend across all regions in the US. Overall temps were +14 degrees warmer to start the month. The GFS Ensemble did not make the same type of move, but both models are starting to once again point to a warm start to Nov. The 11-15 day period is now forecast to be over 20 degrees warmer than the 10Y normal.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 91.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -2.57 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.96 Bcf/d to the 7D average. We believe this will be revised later in the day as we typically see 1st of the month nomination errors. This is also the first official day of winter; hence there are usually different contractual flows that are adjusted between summer and winter.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 77.9 Bcf today, +5.96 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +4.26 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 23.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.1 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 5.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +60 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-01-2021.pdf