Daily Market Report – Nov 1, 2022

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  98.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -3.56 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.01 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The drop in production is most likely overstated with today being the first of the month, and also the first day of winter. Many pipeline tariffs have different contracting levels for the summer/winter; hence we believe some of that noise has filtered into today’s nomination. This should be resolved over the next few days with production moving back higher.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 74.6 Bcf today,  -2.92 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -4.92 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 15.6 Bcf. We also saw a big bearish move in temps this morning, particularly from Euro Ensemble which showed warming in week #2.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today. Sabine feedgas levels were 1 Bcf/d lower today with NGPL maintenance restricting flows to the plant. This maintenance is only expected to last 4 days.

Mexican exports are expected to be 5.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.6 Bcf today.

For week ending Oct 28^th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +98 Bcf, while our flow model is much lower at +83 Bcf injection.  Last year we injected +66 Bcf during the same week. This is the first week in sometime where there is such a large discrepancy between the two models. We will likely go with a final storage level in the mid-90s.

This is the results of our flow model estimate:

Below is the storage activity at the facilities that report at the weekly level:

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