Yesterday the EIA reported a +7 Bcf injection which was inline with the market consensus going into the number. This combination of cooling temps and low wind, solar & nukes led to strong demand during the reporting week and the single digit injection. The East region saw a net withdrawal even with App basin production jumping the last few weeks. Wind itself was lower by 40% relative to week ending October 29, and 28% below our expected level.
For this current week (which will be reported next Thursday) we see wind and nukes rebound leading to lower power burns. Here is the week on week change in the national power stack. This week’s wind is back to to expected levels as seen above.
We also saw stronger production leading to a larger storage injection for the week. The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +22 Bcf today. Past this week we see a net withdrawal as we get deeper into winter.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.22 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.42 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 77 Bcf today, -0.89 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -4.19 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 19.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-11-2021.pdf