Today’s 00z run was very much in line with Friday’s 12z run. The current GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble continue to point to normal temps past a few warms days this week. The fear of a cold back end of November has not transalted into the forecast.
Below is a chart showing the day by day change between the current 00z and Friday’s 12z.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.31 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.21 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 87.4 Bcf today, +0.75 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +5.96 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 29 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.8 Bcf today. Over the weekend, we saw LNG deliveries jump to over 11.5 Bcf/d despite Freeport only operating at ~75% of its normal levels. For today’s expected flows, Freeport is lower to Friday’s levels and Elba has also dropped from is usual 0.3 Bcf/d to 0.08 Bcf/d.
Mexican exports are expected to be 5.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.9 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +25 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-15-2021.pdf