Daily Market Report – Nov 17, 2021

This morning’s 00z runs reversed the cooler weather added 24 hours ago. The latest run shows both the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble shifting warmer by a total of 6-7 HDDs in the 11-15 period. This takes the forecast in that timeframe back to the 10Y normal.

According to Maxar, the first half of November yielded 236 HDDs, which came in slightly lower than the 10Y (241) and 30Y (243). The West continues to received plenty of warmth while the Midwest and SouthEast were cool. The classic La Nina pattern developing is expected to flip the cold to the Northern Tier in December.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.39 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.56 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production continues to show strong levels with some days over the weekend restated to 97 Bcf/d.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 81 Bcf today,  -6.76 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -6.43 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 22 Bcf. Warmer weather today and tomorrow are expected to keep natgas consumption lower after which we see the short-term forecast showing us “normal” weather through the end of the month.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today. Today’s move higher comes with Freeport jumping to its highest feedgas level since Oct 30^th – 1.62 Bcf/d.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.2 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +29 Bcf today.

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