Daily Market Report – Nov 17, 2022

For week ending Nov 11^th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +67 Bcf injection and our Flow model is pointing to +61 Bcf. We are taking the middle ground this week with an average of the two model. Our final estimate is +64 Bcf. Last year we injected only +23 Bcf during the same week.

The current Bloomberg survey is +66 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +65 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +65 [no OI]

Week 2 is +40 [1 OI] *doesn’t make sense

Week 3 is +36 [no OI] *doesn’t make sense

There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1625, OI = 143 [Last week was 1692, OI = 56]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  100 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.42 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.2 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 107.1 Bcf today,  +1.93 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +8.61 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 32.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 40.5 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.5 Bcf today. Sabine Pass is now receiving over 5 Bcf/d of feedgas.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 7 Bcf today. Canadian import continue to rise to suffice the heavy demand in the Midwest.

This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.