Daily Market Report – Nov 2, 2021

The forecast continued to move warmer it today’s 00z forecast. Today the GFS Ensemble played a little catch up to the Euro Ensemble’s week runs. The GFS Ensemble saw significant heating in the Midwest and East past this week leading to forecast that shows above normal temps past Nov 7^th. The chart below shows today’s 00z run vs yesterday’s 00z run for the next 15 days.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  94.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +1.25 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.1 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production was revised higher for yesterday’s flows in the final cycle to 93.4 Bcf/d. Yesterday was both the start of a new month and start of the winter season; and therefore we do see some odd nomination data that is later revised.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 83.3 Bcf today,  +3.25 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +9.26 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 26.3 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11 Bcf today. Sabine is now operating at a feedgas level of 4 Bcf/d.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.3 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +59 Bcf today.

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