Daily Market Report – Nov 2, 2022

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  99.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.13 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.47 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The drop in production over the last 2 days is most likely overstated with early month nomination usually lower than actual. Typically we see restatements in volumes over the first 5 days of the month.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 75.1 Bcf today,  +0.22 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.41 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 16.7 Bcf. With the dramatic decline in natural gas prices over the last month, we see natural gas generation continue to hold a strong proportion of the thermal generation mix. We expect this to continue through the winter with coal stocks low at power plants.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.5 Bcf today. Sabine feedgas levels were 1 Bcf/d lower today with NGPL maintenance restricting flows to the plant. This maintenance is only expected to last 4 days. Freeport timing also continues to remain a mystery, and as a result any piece of related news sends prices moving higher or lower. The latest news suggest that the PHMSA has not received an official restart plan from Freeport yet. (Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-01/freeport-lng-has-yet-to-file-restart-plan-as-target-date-nears)

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 3.9 Bcf today. Canadian exports dropped across almost every pipeline coming out of WestCan as production in the Alberta falls.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +98 Bcf today.

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