Natural gas markets opened the week weaker on bearish weather. Today’s 00z run gave some early hits of a warm start to December relative to Friday’s 12Z run. The current GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble both show the same trend in weather with the Mountain, SC, and Pacific well above the 10Y normal during the first week of December.
Below is a chart showing the change between the current 00z and Friday’s 12z/10Y Normal.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 97 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.61 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.66 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 93.4 Bcf today, +6.31 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +4.05 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 32 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12 Bcf today. Freeport has returned to full service after being down for maintenance on a pretreatment plant.
Mexican exports are expected to be 5.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.1 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -27 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-22-2021.pdf