Daily Market Report – Nov 24, 2021

The EIA reports a today, day early due to the Thanksgiving holiday. For today’s storage report our final projection is -27 Bcf. [S/D model at -31 seemed high this week, so we go with the out of our flow model which was -27]

The current Bloomberg survey is -24 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +20 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is -23 [today’s report]

Week 2 is -55

Week 3 is -114

There current end of Winter 2021/22 (Apr 8^th) is 1465. [Last week was 1435]

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3600. [Last week was 3600]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  97.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.12 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.14 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 93.4 Bcf today,  -6.26 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.7 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 31.7 Bcf. Weather will hover right along the 10Y normal leading to season ResComm usage.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.7 Bcf today. Freeport had a dip yesterday even after the completion of maintenance late last week. In other new, Sabine confirmed the first operation use of T6 yesterday.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.9 Bcf today.

[Note: The next scheduled report will be Monday Nov 29^th]

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