Daily Market Report – Nov 29, 2021

Welcome back after a long weekend which was filled with volatility. The Dec contract rallied and expired strong on Friday (most likely on the back of dropping oil prices), and then bearish weather runs over the weekend led to a week market open yesterday. From Friday’s 12z run, the GFS Ensemble lost over 20 HDDs and the Euro Ensemble lost 13 HDDs. This now takes the 2^nd week of Dec below the 10Y normal. The fear of cool risk in Dec are quickly dissipating as the current 15 day forecast almost takes us to the holiday week when demand naturally falls off.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  97.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.28 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.21 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production was very strong over the weekend touching an all time high of 98 Bcf/d over the weekend according to Bloomberg estimates.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 93.1 Bcf today,  +0.73 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.71 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.2 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 34.4 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.9 Bcf today. Over the long weekend, LNG deliveries hit an all-time high with Freeport returning to full service and Sabine taking a record amount of 4.67 Bcf/d on Friday. This new high mark for Sabine confirms train 6 is being tested.

Mexican exports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.4 Bcf today. Canadian exports remain quick strong with Western Canada receiving warm weather over the weekend.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -55 Bcf today.

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