Daily Market Report – Nov 3, 2021

Today’s Fundamentals

Monday was both the start of a new month and start of the winter season; and therefore we continue to see odd nomination data. Yesterday’s final cycle data pushed production even higher above 95 Bcf/d, while today’s is estimated to be  94.6 Bcf/d. Today’s estimated production is -0.88 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.18 Bcf/d to the 7D average. If this production levels do hold, this is well above where we have been most of the year. The South Central is producing ~43.5 Bcf/d while the Northeast is at 35 Bcf/d.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 92.7 Bcf today,  +1.92 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +13.26 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 31 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 29.1 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.4 Bcf today. The drop is total feedgas level is a result of Freeport having an unplanned maintenance event. According to Criterion Research, “the facility was forced to take down their pretreatment train after an incident Sunday, and they expect that unit to be offline through next Sunday”. Sabine has been ramping up the last few days to make up for some of the lost feedgas volumes to Freeport. Sabine is expected to take 4.2 Bcf/d today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.3 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +57 Bcf today.

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