Warmer weather runs continue to push natgas prices lower. The winter strip is off substantially once again this morning with both the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble showing fewer HDDS over the next 15 days vs. yesterday 12z outlook. The GFS Ensemble lost ~18 HDDs, while the Euro Ensemble lost 9 HDDs. The GFS Ensemble showed a big move in the 11-15 range.
The current forecast now pushed the national weather well below the 10Y normal. Over the next 15 days, the GFS Ensemble has 50 fewer HDDs and the Euro Ensemble is 42 fewer.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -2.41 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.23 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The drop came from multiple regions; hence could be some of the nomination noise we typically see at the beginning of a month.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 90.6 Bcf today, -5.04 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.91 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 31.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.6 Bcf today. The drop came from the two Cheniere plants (Corpus and Sabine) which were lower by 0.2-0.3 Bcf/d each
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.6 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -58 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-30-2021.pdf