Daily Market Report – Nov 8, 2022

Natgas prices dived late in the day yesterday on a report from Genscape suggesting that Freeport likely does not return until December. Eric Fell left some comments on enelyst yesterday evening to clarify their LNG team’s view point. Here is the direct link to the notes if you are on enelyst: https://chat.enelyst.com/enelyst/pl/h8mxjdud9jghmx9z8bguu9px7e

Today’s email alert from our LNG team pertained to a new memo on the FERC library regarding the most recent conference call between Freeport and PHSMA. It was definitely not the “same news from last week”.

…. our LNG team now thinks that Freeport will miss their publicly stated timeline of “early to mid November” and that a restart is unlikely to occur prior to December

With 3 tankers hovering around Freeport and Freeport nominating 0.21 Bcf/d of natgas this morning, its getting more difficult to understand when Freeport actually does return.

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Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  99.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.15 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.17 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 82.7 Bcf today,  +2.24 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +7.19 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 21.4 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.7 Bcf today. Freeport nominations spiked to 0.21 Bcf/d today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.2 Bcf today.

For week ending Nov 4^th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +80 Bcf, while our flow model is much lower at +78 Bcf injection.  Last year we injected +15 Bcf during the same week.

This is the results of our flow model estimate:

Below is the storage activity at the facilities that report at the weekly level:

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