Daily Market Report – Nov 9, 2022

We are seeing some wild early-Nov weather, but prices are moving lower this morning despite all that.

Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions have begun along the east coast of Florida in the warning areas and will spread northward to Georgia and South Carolina later today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin along the west coast of Florida within the warning area this evening or tonight.

The market might be interpreting this event as possible demand destruction.

Also expected is a major winter storm starting tonight which will bring heavy snow and cool conditions to the Northern Plains through Friday. Snowfall will likely exceed 12″ in parts of the Dakotas, with impactful freezing rain possible in other areas. This should raise RC demand for the region.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  100.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.29 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.05 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 80.5 Bcf today,  -3.01 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.63 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 20.5 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.3 Bcf today. Sabine nominations are once again lower today taking the total input level to 3.9 Bcf/d.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.1 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is an injection of 78-81 Bcf today.

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