Models have shifted net cooler in past 24 hours, but mainly just to weaken the warm pattern rather than setting up any significantly colder shift. Troughing over Alaska is still a warm signal, but some North Atlantic height rises weaken Eastern warmth at times too.
The Euro Ensemble and GFS Ensemble both showing cooler changes to the short-term forecast, but the Euro En cooler in the 11-15 day period as well. The cooler temps showed up in the 12z forecast yesterday, and as a result price took a steep turn higher. At around 1:15pm EST the front month sky rocketed from 2.91 to 3.05.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 89.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.91 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.35 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 82.4 Bcf today, +1.35 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +10.59 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.54 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 24.1 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.6 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-12-2020.pdf