Natural gas prices are down 5% this morning with a big warming trend showing up in weekend weather runs. The GFS Ensemble was the big mover that lost 26 TDDs vs Friday 12Z run in today’s 00z run. There was not much movement in the Euro Ensemble, but traders seem to be clinging on to the wild movements of the GFS Ensemble.
The chart on the left shows today’s 00z vs Friday’s 12Z.
Here is the latest forecast which shows close alignment until GD23.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 91 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.1 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.14 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 82.6 Bcf today, +2.17 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.31 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 25.14 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 25.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.8 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-16-2020.pdf