The market continues to be fixated on the wild changes in the 15D weather forecast. Yesterday, the prompt month fell 29.8c. This morning the forecasts are mixed. The Euro Ensemble shows some further warming in the 6-10 day range, while the GFS Ensemble adds some HDD back in the 11-15 range.
Regardless of the small day on day changes, the weather is expected to be well below the 10Y normal pattern.
For this coming week, we are expecting a 22 Bcf injection as warmer temps last week reduced overall consumption by 5.1 Bcf/d. The storage facilities that report on a weekly basis mainly showed injections at their facilities as well. Most are showing near full levels with lots of winter ahead.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 90.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.79 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.39 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 86.5 Bcf today, +1.02 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.14 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 25.44 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 29.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.6 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.6 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-17-2020.pdf