Another big change in weather this morning’s 00z run. Both the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble trended cooler. The GFS Ensemble added 13.4 HDDs with all by 3 out of the days trending cooler. The Euro Ensemble added 15.9 HDD with almost all days cooler in the 15D window.
The back end of the forecast (11-15) is now closing in now lining up with the 10Y normal weather pattern.
Another interesting note is that the current forecast is getting close to the Friday’s 12Z forecast, i.e the last forecast before the market fell apart on the Sunday open. For the first 10 days that over lap between the forecasts (Nov 18-27), the GFS Ensemble is now only 13.2 TDD warmer and the Euro is only 4 TDDs warmer.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 89.8 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -2.25 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.95 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 88.8 Bcf today, +0.1 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +5.16 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.54 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 31.8 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.6 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-18-2020.pdf