The EIA reported a 31 Bcf injection yesterday. This was well above analyst expectations, and added to the bearish tone already in the market. Today’s overnight forecast was mixed. The GEFS Ensemble lost 6.6 TDDs, while the Euro Ensemble gained 3.1 TDDs. With all the talk about Dec warmth, so far the first few days of Dec will hover around the 10Y normal levels.
With lower pricing, especially regional cash prices in the NE, we see production react lower. Total Northeast production is off almost 1 Bcf/d from the highs set this month with week TCO and Dom South cash pricing. We expect production to trend lower this weekend as producers react to this new level of pricing.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 91.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.38 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.4 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 76.6 Bcf today, -4.61 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -7.9 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 25.74 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 20.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 9.9 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.3 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-20-2020.pdf