Both the GFS Ensemble 00z and Euro Ensemble 00z runs showed a consistent move from Friday afternoon. Below is the change in the 1-13 day from Friday’s 12z run. The models showed warming in the 6-10 day range, and cooling in the 11+ day range. The start of December now looks to be inline with the 10Y normal which puts more pressure on the thesis of a blow-out hot December as many long-term forecast models have been showing. As a result, prices are modestly higher this morning.
This is today’s forecast vs. The 10Y normal
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 92.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.24 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.01 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 85.5 Bcf today, +3.1 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.06 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.44 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 29.3 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 9.8 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.5 Bcf today.
This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.
ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-23-2020.pdf