Total production has rose above 90 Bcf with the start of November. The return of Gulf of Mexico production and rising Northeast production helped get production back to these levels.

 

Strong production along with warmer weather is adding a bearish tilt to winter prices. This morning front month prices are off another 6c to 3.18.

 

In overnight runs, the Euro Ensemble did not change much, but the GFS Ensemble was revised significantly warmer.

 

 

The latest 15D weather forecast has the GFS Ensemble trending much warmer than the Euro Ensemble.

 

 

Today’s Fundamentals:

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  90.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.27 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.88 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 0 Bcf today,  -87.86 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -85.37 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 04 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 0 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.1 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.8 Bcf today.

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