Today’s 00z Euro Ensemble shows a cooling trend that have pushed the prompt month contract higher. In the 1-5 day period, both models point to weather hovering above the 10Y normal, after which weather seems to follow a seasonal pattern.
The current forecast gives us a look at the first half of December now, and the concern of now overwhelming heat (as previously forecasted) is getting traders concerned. Below is the today’s forward (blue) vs. last Wednesday’s forward curve which shows the winter strip move moving higher, while the summer backing off slightly.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 92.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.25 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.25 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 84.4 Bcf today, -0.49 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.44 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 23.44 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 32 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.7 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.7 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-30-2020.pdf