The overnight runs were mixed with the GEFS Ensemble adding HDDs, and the Euro Ensemble trending warmer. The models are more closely aligned now, but the warm trend seems to have moved prices even lower this morning.
The current 15D forecast is showing roughly 70-75 HDDs below the 10Y normal.
Our forecast for tomorrow storage report for week ending Oct 30 is a 34 Bcf withdrawal. We expect this to be a tricky number as this is the first we we’re transitioning from injection to withdrawal. The Bloomberg whisper currently sits at -34 Bcf as well.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 90.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.1 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.42 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 74.1 Bcf today, -5.81 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -10.87 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 24.74 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 18.3 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.2 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4 Bcf today.
This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.
ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-4-2020.pdf