The winter strip saw a massive sell-off last week with one bearish temp forecast after another. The summer did not fall to the same degree, leading to the over all curve flattening.
Despite consumption falling with warmer temps, there have been some (side-effect) factors that have led to tighter conditions. The first being production falling in across the country, but led by the Northeast which typically falls when regional prices do. Overall, production today is expected to be 1.7 Bcf/d lower than Friday.
The second factor is LNG which continues to set records. LNG feedgas is nominated at 10.61 Bcf/d today with increases at Freeport and Cameron vs. Friday.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 88.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.35 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.99 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 72.1 Bcf today, +1.93 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.58 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 23.84 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 15.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.6 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 2.2 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Nov-9-2020.pdf