Overnight runs showed some consistent warmer weather show up in the 15D forecast after sometime. Both the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble added roughly 5 pwCDDs across the 2 week window. Even with this change, the forecast is still well below the 10Y normal and that appears to be the trend most of Oct will follow with the strong La Nina.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 90.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.95 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.01 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 69.3 Bcf today, -1.13 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.08 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 9.1 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.7 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +115 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Oct-01-2021.pdf