Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 102.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.59 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.59 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The strength in production over the weekend looks to be weighing on the market. The rise comes from the SC, and the NE where the TETCO forced majeure that restricted volumes from TETCO to NEXUS was lifted on Oct 1. NE production is now back above 34 Bcf/d. We typically see NE production rise going into the winter. Below is the move recent notice from TETCO:
“As posted on September 20, 2022, Texas Eastern Transmission, LP (TE) experienced an unplanned outage on its Line 73 Valve Section (VS) 1A between its Salineville and Colerain compressor stations. As a result of its Line 73 Valve Section (VS) 1A being returned to service, effective immediately, all restrictions related with this Force Majeure have been lifted.”
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 75.3 Bcf today, +1.29 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.35 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 12.7 Bcf. North Carolina and South Carolina now reporting very few power outages according to PowerOutage.us, but Florida is still struggling to bring back 600l customers. This was a quick bounce back from the 2.6M without customer last Wed/Thursday. That being said, total deliveries to power plants is still projected to be about 0.8-1.0 Bcf/d lower than normal.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.7 Bcf today. Cove Point started its annual 3-week maintenance this weekend, which is adding to the bearish tone in the market this morning. The plant feedgas levels are usually around 0.77 Bcf/d.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +120 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-Oct-02-2022.pdf