Daily Market Report – Oct 04, 2022

According to PowerOutage.us, there now 433k customers without power. This works out to roughly 4% of customers.

The pipeline flow data is still pointing to a more severe level of demand destruction. According to pipeline deliveries to power plants, there is approximately 0.8 Bcf/d of gas gen shut-in (or operating at a lower level). This roughly works out to 21% of customers without power.

There is a discrepancy between the two methods of understanding daily demand destruction from Hurricane Ian; and we tend to go with the pipeline flow which is more of an exactly count. So based on that, there is 0.8 Bcf/d still shut-in in Florida.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 101.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -2.57 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.31 Bcf/d to the 7D average. With today’s drop we are seeing some volatility in the noms as we typically do in the first week of the month.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 76.2 Bcf today,  -0.19 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.27 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 32.2 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 13.8 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.6 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today.

For week ending Sept 30^th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +122 Bcf, while our flow model is at +121 Bcf injection.  LY we injected +89 Bcf during the same week. Last year we injected +114 Bcf during the same week.

This is the results of our flow model estimate:

Below is the storage activity at the facilities that report at the weekly level:

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